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Real Climate

  • Scientists getting organized to help readers sort fact from fiction in climate change media coverage - Guest post by Emmanuel Vincent While 2016 is on track to easily surpass 2015 as the warmest year on record, some headlines, in otherwise prestigious news outlets, are still claiming that “2015 Was Not Even Close To Hottest Year On Record” (Forbes, Jan 2016) or that the “Planet is not overheating…” (The Times of London, […]
  • Do regional climate models add value compared to global models? - Global climate models (GCM) are designed to simulate earth’s climate over the entire planet, but they have a limitation when it comes to describing local details due to heavy computational demands. There is a nice TED talk by Gavin that explains how climate models work. We need to apply downscaling to compute the local details. […]
  • AMOC slowdown: Connecting the dots - I want to revisit a fascinating study that recently came from (mainly) the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab in Princeton. It looks at the response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to global warming, in the highest model resolution that I have seen so far. That is in the CM2.6 coupled climate model, with 0.1° x 0.1° […]
  • Recycling Carbon? - Guest commentary by Tony Patt, ETH Zürich This morning I was doing my standard reading of the New York Times, which is generally on the good side with climate reporting, and saw the same old thing: an article about a potential solution, which just got the story wrong, at least incomplete. The particular article was […]
  • Comparing models to the satellite datasets - How should one make graphics that appropriately compare models and observations? There are basically two key points (explored in more depth here) – comparisons should be ‘like with like’, and different sources of uncertainty should be clear, whether uncertainties are related to ‘weather’ and/or structural uncertainty in either the observations or the models. There are […]
  • Unforced variations: May 2016 - This month’s open thread. Usual rules apply.
  • Nenana Ice Classic 2016 - Just a quick note since I’ve been tracking this statistic for a few years, but the Nenana Ice Classic tripod went down this afternoon (Apr 23, 3:39 Alaska Standard Time). See the earlier post for what this is and why it says something about the climate (see posts on 2014 and 2015 results). With this […]
  • The Volcano Gambit - Anyone reading pundits and politicians pontificating profusely about climate or environmental science will, at some point, have come across the “volcano gambit”. During the discussion they will make a claim that volcanoes (or even a single volcano) produce many times more pollutant emissions than human activities. Often the factor is extremely precise to help give […]
  • Unforced Variations: Apr 2016 - This month’s open thread. Standard rules apply…
  • What drives uncertainties in adapting to sea-level rise? - Guest article by Sally Brown, University of Southampton Let me get this off my chest – I sometimes get frustrated at climate scientists as they love to talk about uncertainties! To be sure, their work thrives on it. I’m someone who researches the projected impacts and adaptation to sea-level rise and gets passed ‘uncertain’ climate […]

Climate Depot

Climate Skeptic

  • My Climate Plan, Wherein a Climate Skeptic Actually Advocates for A Carbon Tax - I am always amazed at how people like to draw conclusions about what I write merely from the title, without actually reading everything I wrote.  This is cross-posted from Coyote Blog, where I already am getting accusations of selling out.  Please read before judging.  I have proposed a carbon tax in a way that would […]
  • Come See My Climate Talk on Wednesday Evening, February 24, at Claremont-McKenna College - I am speaking on Wednesday night at the Athenaeum at Claremont-McKenna College near Pomona on Wednesday, February 24.  It is open to the public and is free.  Come by a say hi if you are in the area.  You can just walk in to the presentation which begins at 6:45 but if you want to attend […]
  • US Average Temperature Trends in Context - Cross-posted from Coyoteblog. There was some debate a while back around about a temperature chart some Conservative groups were passing around. Obviously, on this scale, global warming does not look too scary.  The question is, is this scale at all relevant?  I could re-scale the 1929 stock market drop to a chart that goes from […]
  • Revisiting (Yet Again) Hansen’s 1998 Forecast on Global Warming to Congress - I want to briefly revisit Hansen’s 1998 Congressional forecast.  Yes, I and many others have churned over this ground many times, but I think I now have a better approach.   The typical approach has been to overlay some actual temperature data set on top of Hansen’s forecast (e.g. here).  The problem is that with […]
  • Matt Ridley: What the Climate Wars Did to Science - I cannot recommend Matt Ridley’s new article strongly enough.  It covers a lot of ground be here are a few highlights. Ridley argues that science generally works (in a manner entirely parallel to how well-functioning commercial markets work) because there are generally incentives to challenge hypotheses.  I would add that if anything, the incentives tend […]
  • Manual Adjustments in the Temperature Record - I have been getting inquiries from folks asking me what I think about stories like this one, where Paul Homewood has been looking at the manual adjustments to raw temperature data and finding that the adjustments actually reverse the trends from cooling to warming.  Here is an example of the comparisons he did: Raw, before […]
  • Mistaking Cyclical Variations for the Trend - I titled my very first climate video “What is Normal,” alluding to the fact that climate doomsayers argue that we have shifted aspects of the climate (temperature, hurricanes, etc.) from “normal” without us even having enough historical perspective to say what “normal” is. A more sophisticated way to restate this same point would be to […]
  • Typhoons and Hurricanes - (Cross-posted from Coyoteblog) The science that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and causes some warming is hard to dispute.  The science that Earth is dominated by net positive feedbacks that increase modest greenhouse gas warming to catastrophic levels is very debatable.  The science that man’s CO2 is already causing an increase in violent and severe […]
  • Those Who Follow Climate Will Definitely Recognize This - This issue will be familiar to anyone who has spent time with temperature graphs.  We can ask ourselves if 1 degree of global warming is a lot, when it is small compared to seasonal variations, or even intra-day variation, you would find in most locations.  That is not a trick question.  It might be important, […]
  • Layman’s Primer on the Climate Skeptic Position - I am a “lukewarmer”, which means a skeptic that agrees that man-made CO2 is incrementally warming the Earth but believes that the amount of that warming is being greatly exaggerated.  In addition, I believe that the science behind evidence of current “climate change” is really poor, with folks in the media using observations of tail-of-the-distribution weather […]

Watts Up With That

  • A Major Malaise of Climatology is Pervasive in Science - Guest Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball Scientists lost the scientific script somewhere in the 20th century. The major loss involved the fact that correlation is not cause and effect. It was lost for several reasons: Failure to know or consistently apply scientific methods; Lack of ethics as the end justifies the means; Methods and process are…
  • Australia Accused of Manipulating a UN Climate Report - Guest essay by Eric Worrall Australia has been repeated accused over the last few weeks, of successfully lobbying UNESCO to drop mention of the Great Barrier Reef from a climate report. My question – if a relatively minor world player like Australia can manipulate the content of a UNESCO climate report, what does this say…
  • 2015 Updated NOAA Tide Gauge Data Shows No Coastal Sea Level Rise Acceleration - Guest essay by Larry Hamblin NOAA has updated its extensive U.S. coastal tide gauge data measurement records ( to include data through year 2015. These measurements include tide gauge data coastal locations  for 25 West Coast,  Gulf Coast and East Coast states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. In addition 7…
  • Greens Blame Donald Trump for Crumbling Paris Climate Accord - Guest essay by Eric Worrall Never mind he’s not even President yet – greens are already trying to pin the blame for the embarrassing slow motion collapse of the Paris Climate Agreement on US Presidential Candidate Donald Trump. Trump’s Climate Change Denial Is Already Complicating the Paris Climate Deal If Donald Trump wins and pulls…
  • Surprise finding: Arctic Ocean methane does not reach the atmosphere - From the CAGE – CENTER FOR ARCTIC GAS HYDRATE, CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT and the cancel the “methane time bomb” department comes this surprising finding: 250 methane flares release the climate gas methane from the seabed and into the Arctic Ocean. During the summer months this leads to an increased methane concentration in the ocean. But surprisingly,…
  • Bazinga! Edward Maibach and his FOI emergency stay for the #RICO20 emails gets slapped down by the court - From my sources in Virginia Court, comes this news about what we reported on recently: CEI fires back at Ed Maibach over ’emergency stay’ of #RICO20 FOIA documents – looks like he’s toast The court heard the Maibach motion in about two minutes and ordered the entirety of FOI released. For the third time. Released was…
  • Another Eric Holthaus moment: calls to reduce family size to save planet - Remember Eric Holthaus? He’s the activist who said that he’d get a vasectomy and stop flying to save the planet from climate change. Yet, he couldn’t do either of those, had a child anyway and still flies airlines. If a committed eco-activist can’t keep his promises, one wonders how this plan could ever work? of course,…
  • Claim: Climate Threatens the Statue of Liberty - Image from the WUWT story: National Geographic’s Junk Science: How long will it take for sea level rise to reach midway up the Statue of Liberty? Guest essay by Eric Worrall Climate alarmists have broadened their desperate search for a way of engaging people’s attention, by compiling a list of iconic tourist attractions and national icons…
  • Green French Turn to Emergency Fossil Fuel Reserves - Guest essay by Eric Worrall The strongly pro-green French Government have unlocked their strategic fossil fuel reserves, to keep the economy going, in the midst of economically crippling strikes which are preventing oil deliveries and threatening the stability of the national electricity supply. France Faces Fresh Strikes And Power Shortages As Nuclear Workers Join Protest…
  • Former “Underwater Cabinet” Maldives President Granted British Asylum - Guest essay by Eric Worrall Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed, famous for holding a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight alleged climate issues, has been granted political asylum to remain in Britain. The current Maldives government expressed disappointment – they want Nasheed back, so he can serve out a prison sentence. AFP – Mohamed Nasheed, the…
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