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Current conditions for Troutdale as of Thu, 11 Feb 2016 7:53 pm PST

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Real Climate

  • Marvel et al (2015) Part III: Response to Nic Lewis - The first post in this series gave the basic summary of (henceforth MEA15) and why I think it is an important paper. The second discussed some of the risible immediate media coverage. But there has also been an ‘appraisal’ of the paper by Nic Lewis that has appeared in no fewer than three other climate […]
  • Anti-scientists - Ross McKitrick was so upset about a paper ‘Learning from mistakes in climate research’ that he has written a letter of complaint and asked for immediate retraction of the pages discussing his work. This is an unusual step in science, as most disagreements and debate involve a comment or a response to the original article. […]
  • New On-line Classes and Models - My free online class on Coursera.org entitled Global Warming I: The Science and Modeling of Climate Change has already served 45,000 people (started, not finished) in the four times that it’s run. Now it’s set up in a new format, called “on demand mode”, which allows people to start, progress, and finish on their own […]
  • Unforced Variations: Feb 2016 - This month’s open thread. Just so you know, a lot of people have complained that these threads have devolved – particularly when the discussion has turned to differing visions of solutions – and have therefore become much less interesting. Some suggestions last month were for a side thread for that kind of stuff that wouldn’t […]
  • How Likely Is The Observed Recent Warmth? - With the official numbers now in 2015 is, by a substantial margin, the new record-holder, the warmest year in recorded history for both the globe and the Northern Hemisphere. The title was sadly short-lived for previous record-holder 2014. And 2016 could be yet warmer if the current global warmth persists through the year. One might […]
  • Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System - Blizzard Jonas on the US east coast has just shattered snowfall records. Both weather forecasters and climate experts have linked the high snowfall amounts to the exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures off the east coast. In this post I will examine a related question: why are sea surface temperatures so high there, as shown in […]
  • 2015 Temperatures - To no-one’s great surprise, 2015 was clearly a record year in all the surface temperature analyses (GISTEMP, NOAA, HadCRUT4, Cowtan&Way, JMA + Berkeley Earth). There is a lot of discussion of this in the press, and on the relevant websites, so not much to add here. A few figures didn’t make it into the official […]
  • Marvel et al (2015) Part 2: Media responses - This is a second post related to the new paper. The first post dealing with the substantive content is here. What with #AGU15 going on, and a little bit of overlap in content with Shindell (2014), NASA wasn’t particularly keen to put out a press release for the paper, but we did get a ‘web […]
  • Marvel et al (2015) Part 1: Reconciling estimates of climate sensitivity - This post is related to the substantive results of the new Marvel et al (2015) study. There is a separate post on the media/blog response. The by Kate Marvel and others (including me) in Nature Climate Change looks at the different forcings and their climate responses over the historical period in more detail than any […]
  • Unforced variations: Jan 2016 - Happy New Year, and happy new open thread. As per usual, nuclear energy is off-topic – it’s not that it’s uninteresting, but it ends up dominating conversation to the total exclusion of everything else and just becomes repetitive and dull. Recent excursions on this topic shows what happens when we relax the moderation, so back […]

Climate Depot

  • Watch Tinfoil: Sen Whitehouse says climate ‘denial’ is biggest ‘scam’ since Teapot Dome, Watergate - Tinfoil: Sen Whitehouse says climate ‘denial’ is biggest ‘scam’ since Teapot Dome, Watergate Speaking on the Senate floor, democrat Senator Sheldon Whitehouse says the climate denial apparatus ‘could be the biggest scam since Tea Pot Dome and Watergate.’ Senator Whitehouse: “Bottom line, if your faith in climate science is undermined, you’ve been had by a [...]
  • Study: Parched Earth soaks up water, slowing sea level rise - http://news.yahoo.com/parched-earth-soaks-water-slowing-sea-level-rise-231245199.html Miami (AFP) – As glaciers melt due to climate change, the increasingly hot and parched Earth is absorbing some of that water inland, slowing sea level rise, NASA experts said Thursday. Satellite measurements over the past decade show for the first time that the Earth’s continents have soaked up and stored an extra 3.2 [...]
  • Bipartisan panel of politicos: Climate skepticism does not harm Republicans in general election - http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/insiders-keystone-climate-science-republicans-219102 Republicans, meanwhile, don’t believe that their candidates — the majority of whom don’t believe human activity is altering the climate — are jeopardizing their electability in the general by opposing changing public policy to address the perceived threats of climate change. More than 90 percent of Republicans — surveyed last month prior to the [...]
  • WaPo: Gov’t Needs To Relocate Those Victimized By Global Warming - http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/11/obamas-budget-short-changes-states-to-relocate-entire-american-towns/ President Barack Obama’s FY 2017 federal budget repeals oil and gas revenue sharing payments and uses a portion of the money to relocate coastal Alaskan communities supposedly ravaged by “climate change,” prompting global warming alarmists to sing his praises. The Washington Post’s environmental reporter, Chris Mooney, told his readers Tuesday the move to redirect money from [...]
  • Clinton’s Solar Scheme Would Cost Taxpayers $200 Billion/Year, Have No Effect on CO2 Levels - http://mrctv.org/blog/clintons-solar-scheme-would-cost-taxpayers-200-billionyear-have-no-effect-co2-levels
  • BBC: Climate change ‘to make transatlantic flights longer’ - http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35533761 Flights from the UK to the US could take longer due to the changes in the climate, according to a new study. Global warming is likely to speed up the jet stream, say researchers, and slow down aeroplanes heading for the US. While eastbound flights from the US will be quicker, roundtrip journeys will [...]
  • How the Environmental Movement Morphed into the Climate Change Movement - http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2016/02/10/how-environmental-movement-morphed-climate-change-movement
  • Obama’s NASA Budget Is All About Global Warming, Not Space - http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/10/obamas-nasa-budget-is-all-about-global-warming-not-space/ The NASA budget President Barack Obama released Tuesday is far more concerned with spending cash on global warming research than supporting the agency’s mission of space exploration. The top scientific question the space agency claims it wants to answer in its budget justification is “How are Earth’s climate and the environment changing?” The more typical space questions, such [...]
  • Supreme Court Blocks Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan - http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2016/02/11/supreme-court-blocks-obama-administrations-clean-power-plan
  • Aussie CSIRO boss Larry Marshall: Politics of climate ‘more like religion than science’ - http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-11/csiro-boss-apologises-for-climate-religion-comments/7160288 CSIRO chief Larry Marshall has apologised for describing the emotion of the climate debate as almost “more religion than science”. Key points:The CSIRO boss apologises for referencing religion in climate debateHe said he was referring to the ‘passionate zeal around the issue’Dr Marshall defended this CSIRO shake-up, despite international backlash Dr Marshall had told [...]

Climate Skeptic

  • US Average Temperature Trends in Context - Cross-posted from Coyoteblog. There was some debate a while back around about a temperature chart some Conservative groups were passing around. Obviously, on this scale, global warming does not look too scary.  The question is, is this scale at all relevant?  I could re-scale the 1929 stock market drop to a chart that goes from […]
  • Revisiting (Yet Again) Hansen’s 1998 Forecast on Global Warming to Congress - I want to briefly revisit Hansen’s 1998 Congressional forecast.  Yes, I and many others have churned over this ground many times, but I think I now have a better approach.   The typical approach has been to overlay some actual temperature data set on top of Hansen’s forecast (e.g. here).  The problem is that with […]
  • Matt Ridley: What the Climate Wars Did to Science - I cannot recommend Matt Ridley’s new article strongly enough.  It covers a lot of ground be here are a few highlights. Ridley argues that science generally works (in a manner entirely parallel to how well-functioning commercial markets work) because there are generally incentives to challenge hypotheses.  I would add that if anything, the incentives tend […]
  • Manual Adjustments in the Temperature Record - I have been getting inquiries from folks asking me what I think about stories like this one, where Paul Homewood has been looking at the manual adjustments to raw temperature data and finding that the adjustments actually reverse the trends from cooling to warming.  Here is an example of the comparisons he did: Raw, before […]
  • Mistaking Cyclical Variations for the Trend - I titled my very first climate video “What is Normal,” alluding to the fact that climate doomsayers argue that we have shifted aspects of the climate (temperature, hurricanes, etc.) from “normal” without us even having enough historical perspective to say what “normal” is. A more sophisticated way to restate this same point would be to […]
  • Typhoons and Hurricanes - (Cross-posted from Coyoteblog) The science that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and causes some warming is hard to dispute.  The science that Earth is dominated by net positive feedbacks that increase modest greenhouse gas warming to catastrophic levels is very debatable.  The science that man’s CO2 is already causing an increase in violent and severe […]
  • Those Who Follow Climate Will Definitely Recognize This - This issue will be familiar to anyone who has spent time with temperature graphs.  We can ask ourselves if 1 degree of global warming is a lot, when it is small compared to seasonal variations, or even intra-day variation, you would find in most locations.  That is not a trick question.  It might be important, […]
  • Layman’s Primer on the Climate Skeptic Position - I am a “lukewarmer”, which means a skeptic that agrees that man-made CO2 is incrementally warming the Earth but believes that the amount of that warming is being greatly exaggerated.  In addition, I believe that the science behind evidence of current “climate change” is really poor, with folks in the media using observations of tail-of-the-distribution weather […]
  • When Climate Alarmism Limits Environmental Progress - One of my favorite sayings is that “years from now, environmentalists will look back on the current obsession with global warming and say that it did incredible harm to real environmental progress.”  The reason is that there are many environmental problems worse than the likely impact of man-made global warming that would cost substantially less […]
  • Why We Are Exaggerating “Extreme Weather” - I have written in article at Forbes.com called Summer of the Shark, Global Warming Edition.  It describes why the media, and many average citizens, are exaggerating the degree and effects of extreme weather.  Here is a preview of that article, but I encourage you to read it all In the summer of 2001, a little boy […]

Watts Up With That

  • Shock Study: Some School Students are Still Taught about Climatic Natural Variation - Guest essay by Eric Worrall A study published in Science reveals that a number of teachers are rebelling against Federal education directives – that a significant number of school teachers are failing to indoctrinate their students with the politically approved position on climate change, or worse, are teaching students that there are forcings other than…
  • Solar cycle 24 activity continues to be lowest in nearly 200 years - Ir has been a couple of months since WUWT has checked in on the progress of solar cycle 24. Right now, the sun is in “cue ball” mode, with no large visible sunspots as seen below in the most recent Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) photo: Since there is a new analysis out at Pierre Gosselin’s…
  • @NCAR claims: U.S. Southwest sliding into a drier climate, and it’s all your fault - Weather patterns that bring moisture are becoming less frequent From the NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH/UNIVERSITY CORPORATION FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH and the “there’s no natural variation component anymore” department comes this blame game claim that seems to ignore history, like the fact that tree rings show decade and century long droughts in the past: BOULDER…
  • The Profiteers of climate doom - Ten killer questions that expose how wrong and ideologically driven they are by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Willie Soon and David R. Legates A century or so from now, based on current trends, today’s concentration of carbon dioxide in the air will have doubled. How much warming will that cause? The official prediction, 1.5-4.5 degrees…
  • Amnesty Report: Green Battery Technology Built on a Foundation of Child Abuse - Guest essay by Eric Worrall Amnesty International has released a shocking report, about conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the child labourers who mine much of the world’s Cobalt. Cobalt is an essential component of modern high capacity batteries, such as the batteries which power laptops, cell phones and electric cars. The introduction…
  • An Inconvenient truth: Electric-car battery materials could harm key soil bacteria - From the AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY The growing popularity of battery-powered cars could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they are not entirely Earth friendly. Problems can creep in when these batteries are disposed of. Scientists, in a new study in ACS’ journal Chemistry of Materials, are reporting that compounds increasingly used in lithium-ion batteries are…
  • El Nino collapse appears to be underway - Change in sea surface temperature anomalies in the last month; courtesy NOAA This naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean began in earnest early in 2015 and strengthened throughout the year to comparable intensity levels of the strong El Nino episodes of 1982-1983…
  • Study asks: How stable is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Then says doom ahead. - Exceeding critical temperature limits in the Southern Ocean may cause the collapse of ice sheets and a sharp rise in sea levels From the ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH and modeled certainty department: Future warming of the Southern Ocean caused by rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere may severely…
  • Study proves urban heat islands exist, even in the Arctic - From the “we told you so years ago” department comes this interesting study that might explain the 8 °C red spot in the Russian Arctic that NASA GISS always seems to have: From Science News: A novel form of the “urban heat island” effect might contribute to why the far north is warming faster than…
  • What Powers The Electricity? - Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There is a generator-by-generator analysis of the US power supply for 2012, called “eGrid”, available here as an Excel file. I’ve aggregated the data by fuel type. Discuss. Best of a lovely February night to all, Orion refulgent in ebon sky, Castor and Pollux looking on … w. Tagged: eGrid, electricity supply,…
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